Follow our Half Des strategy for football matches which comply with the criteria below

CRITERIA

  1. Home favourite to be priced 1.7 or below (before the match starts)
  2. Correct Score market to have at least £25k liquidity
  3. 2-0 correct score to the home team to be priced at 7.0 or higher

The best way to find potential trades is to open up the days football matches on Betfair with the “can turn in play” box ticked.  Simply make a note of all home favourites priced 1.70 or below and make a note of the kick off time.

Around 15 minutes before kick off check the match fits the criteria highlighted above and if so place 1 point BACK BET on the 2-0 correct score market.

We then place a 1 point LAY BET at odds 1 point less than the BACK BET odds.  e.g. If we backed the 2-0 t odds of 7.8 we would place a LAY BET at 6.8.  ENSURE THIS BET IS FLAGGED TO BE KEPT IN PLAY!!!!

The beauty of the 2-0 correct score when combined with the above is that the odds will generally come in for the first 15 minutes or so and it is this fall in odds that we are trying to take advantage of.

The only danger to us at the moment is if the away team score before our in play LAY bet has been matched.  To cover this we also place a 1 point LAY bet on the home team to score the next goal.  This way of the away do score before our LAY bet has been matched we will have had a scratch trade and move on.

POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

  • The away team score a goal before our LAY bet has been matched.  This results in a NO WIN/NO LOSS trade
  • The home team score before our LAY bet has been matched.  We then trade out our correct score market position for equal profit BUT would have lost our LAY bet in the next goal market.  This would generally result in a loss or around £3-£4 when using £10 stakes
  • Our in play LAY bet is matched before a goal is scored.  At this point we trade out our next goal position (this will generally result in a virtual scratch trade).  We now have a FREE BET on the 2-0 correct score and we have some choices to make.
  1. Trade out the correct score position for an even profit
  2. Let the trade run out and hope for a 2-0
  3. Wait for the favourite to take the lead and then trade out

The recommended selection is to wait for the home team to score and take a 1-0 lead and then trade out for an equal profit.