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In-Play Football
Selection Criteria
Under 2.5 = below 2.0
0-0 = Above 11.0
CS Liquidity over £10k
How It Works
The In-play football strategy is a strategy that can be applied to a number of in-play markets but for the purpose of the guide we will concentrate on the Correct Score market. We will also be using the Geeks Toy with Betfair for images.
The strategy revolves around time and how prices for certain outcomes will gradually reduce as time passes.
As time ticks away the chance of certain outcomes happening increases (odds drop) and by backing and then laying during this time period we hope to lock in small and consistent profits.
On average the 0-0 Correct Score would be odds @10.0+ but the longer the match goes on without a goal the shorter this price will be. By backing the 0-0 at a point in the game and then laying 0-0 a few moments later we can, as mentioned above,lock in small and consistent profits.
What Happens If There is A Goal before we LAY?
If this happens we would lose 100% of our BACK stake as the 0-0 is no longer possible BUT we have ways of greatly reducing our RISK (or our time in the market where we are susceptible to a goal) which we will explain later.
Normal strategies rely on something happening in the match (e.g. in football we generally need goals to profit from trading) but using this strategy we are looking for the opposite. We are hoping for nothing to happen while our bets are not matched.
To reduce the RISK and time spent in the market what we do is PLACE OUR LAY BET INTO THE MARKET FIRST (Not at the current LAY ODDS but at least a few ticks less than the current price. Once the match kicks off we then wait for the odds to approach our LAY ODDS and then place our BACK bet into the market. We place our BACK bet into the market at 1 tick higher than our LAY bet and only when the liquidity on this price starts to drop.
By placing our LAY bet into the market first we will be higher up the queue to get matched (therefore we spend less time in the market and reducing the risk of a goal while we are open)
By timing our BACK bet correctly we also reduce the time spent in the market and again reduce the risk even further.
See the image below for a match between B Monchengladbach and Hamburg.
By using the Ladder interface on The Geeks Toy we can have a clearer picture of the 0-0 result. You can see on the image that there is a gap in the odds at 10.5 (there is currently no money in the market to LAY this price). By placing our LAY bet at 10.5 and to leave in running we know we are at the head of the queue and will be first to be matched at this price (should there be no goals before this price is reached). I will go ahead and place a £50 lay at 10.5.
See figure 2 below showing my £50 LAY bet now in the market waiting to be matched.
Depending on your bankroll you can place multiple LAYS to fill in the gaps or where there is very little money available e.g. at odds 11.0 there is only £3 so this would also be an option to place your LAY bet.
I will stick to just the 1 lay bet at a time for the purpose of the guide.
Having placed our 1st LAY bet we now wait for the match to kick off. It is recommended to be watching the game although not essential as we are only hoping to be in the market for very short periods.
As the price on 0-0 begins to drop we are waiting for the LAY price to reach our LAY BET + 1 TICK (e.g. as we have placed our LAY bet at 10.5, +1 tick = odds 11.0). When the current LAY odds reach 11.0 we then wait for this price to start dropping and as it drops to around £100 we then place our BACK BET (using the same stake as our LAY bet) at the prince of 11.0 (1 tick higher than our LAY bet). Therefore I will be placing a BACK bet of £50 at odds 11.0.
Scenarios
- A goal is scored before our getting close to our LAY Price and no bets have been matched.
- If this happens we simply switch our attention to the current score and follow the same procedure
- Our LAY price is getting closer to be matched and using the guide above we now place our BACK bet into the market and both our BACK and LAY bets are matched :-).
- This gives us £25 green on the 0-0 scoreline. We then hedge this potential profit across all scores for a profit of @£2.27 (@4.5% profit from £50 stake) and then place an additional LAY bet on the current score and start the process again where we see a gap or low amounts waiting.
- Your LAY bet is being matched but your BACK bet is not.
- If this happens as we are at the head of the queue there is no panic. You can easily exit the trade by BACKING to the same stake and odds as the LAY bet and cancelling your initial BACK bet and then start the process again.
- A goal is scored after your BACK bet was matched but before you lay was matched!! This should be very, very infrequent (@1-2% max of the time). If this happens you have lost your stake and you start the process again on the current score.
Depending on your available funds you should be looking at placing anything from 5 bets upwards (across the whole match) and profits of 20%+ (if you have the bank then profits of 100%+ can easily be achieved when placing multiple LAY bets at the same time and just waiting for the price to drop to start BACKING them off.
This method (as stated earlier on in the guide) can be applied to many markets. For example the Under 1.5/2.5/3.5/4.5 markets, Half-Time score markets etc. Give it a go and if you have any questions please get in touch.